The Ottawa Senators will head to Scotiabank Arena for a showdown with the Toronto Maple Leafs. It will be a Canadian clash as we continue our NHL odds series and make a Senators-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.
The Senators lead the head-to-head series 75-70, with three other games resulting in a tie. Also, they are 6-4 in the past 10 games against the Leafs, including 4-1 in the past five games at Scotiabank Arena. The Senators have won both games this season, including a 3-0 shutout win in Toronto.
Here are the Senators-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Senators-Maple Leafs Odds
Ottawa Senators: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: +122
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -146
Over: 5.5 (-138)
Under: 5.5 (+112)
How To Watch Senators vs Maple Leafs
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
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Why the Senators Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Senators made some deals at the trade deadline to increase their playoff chances. So far, it seems to be working, as they have nabbed two wins in their last three games. Brady Tkachuk has weathered the trade rumors and continued to dominate for the Senators. Ironically, he has not scored in either game against the Maple Leafs this season.
But Tim Stutzle has done well for the Senators. So far, he has one goal and one assist in two games against the Maple Leafs. Drake Batherson has also done well, with an assist against the Leafs. Significantly, both of these players have helped the Senators go 2 for 4 on the powerplay against the Maple Leafs this season.
The offense has netted five goals in two games. Yet, the defense has been the true strong point against the Maple Leafs. Amazingly, they have shut down Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares, not letting any of the “Core 4” of the Maple Leafs from scoring any points.
Their exceptional job at shutting down these players has been second to none, as they have not given any of these four any room to maneuver. Additionally, it has allowed them to shut down all four powerplays the Leafs have had. Getting to the tight spots and protecting the crease has been exceptional, and the Sens have continued to amp the pressure. Linus Ullmark was exceptional in the last battle in Toronto, shutting down the Leafs by stopping all 27 shots.
The Senators will cover the spread if their offense can continue generating chances and Tkachuk can find ways to score. Then, the defense must continue putting pressure and Ullmark must make the stops again.
Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Maple Leafs have struggled against the Senators this season. Sadly, they just have not been able to get good shots on the Senators and have fallen into a rut. The thing with the Maple Leafs is that they are a “go big or do nothing” type of team. Their struggles have been familiar to Maple Leafs fans.
Marner continues to shine but must find a way to make something happen against the Senators. Likewise, Matthews must score. Matthews has not scored this week and is in a “mini-slump.” Both players must do something to help the Maple Leafs find a way to win this game. Additionally, Tavares and Nylander have also been ineffective.
The truth is that Toronto’s top two lines control its destiny. When they thrive, the Maple Leafs usually win. When they don’t, they lose. The Leafs were also ineffective on the powerplay, which must improve.
The defense struggled in both games, even the game where they allowed two goals. They were bad on the penalty kill, allowing two of four chances. Yet, they handled Tkachuk well. Assuming Joseph Woll gets the start, he hopes to play tighter and make more saves.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if their top two lines can generate some scoring. Then, the defense cannot allow the Senators to fire pucks at the net.
Final Senators-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick
The Senators are 26-38 against the spread, while the Maple Leafs are 31-33 against the spread. Additionally, the Sens are 16-18 against the spread on the road, while the Leafs are 16-16 against the spread at home. The Senators are 26-33-5 against the over/under, while the Maple Leafs are 31-30-3 against the over/under.
The Senators have had the Maple Leafs’ number recently. Ultimately, I don’t think that anything will change this time around. While the Maple Leafs might steal a win, the Senators will still find a way to cover the spread on the road in a super showdown on Saturday.
Final Senators-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Ottawa Senators: +1.5 (-205)
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