WE’RE just four weeks away from seeing Jarlath Burns hand over Sam Maguire — yet it’s hard to recall a time when forecasting a winner at this stage of the Championship was such a conundrum.
The finely balanced match-ups thrown up by the draw have made this weekend’s quarter-final bill hugely exciting.
At 11-4 each, Meath and Monaghan are the biggest outsiders to reach the last four.
Still, given the form and calibre of both teams, it would not go down as a major shock if either, or even both, were to advance.
Given that nobody can seem to agree on who is in pole position to claim All-Ireland SFC glory on July 27, here is my own pecking order in the race for Sam . . .
8) GALWAY
THIS one might raise eyebrows straight off the bat.
And such are the fine margins at play, there will be no great surprise on my behalf if Galway are back at Croke Park in a fortnight.
But for me, a Tribe side capable of blowing hot and cold are not as formidable as they were 12 months ago.
When Shane Walsh does not catch fire, they tend not to function well as a unit.
They have coped without Damien Comer, though the different dimension he can provide would be a huge asset for them.
After losing an All-Ireland final by a point, the road to atonement is long and arduous.
Both mentally and physically, there is a lot of mileage on the clock.
7) MEATH
BEATING Galway tomorrow is well within Meath’s capability. The Royals have excelled under the new rules and they have become a very confident outfit under Robbie Brennan.
It is as if the shackles have been taken off, particularly for the younger players as they have really started to express themselves.
Meath have done extremely well to persevere in the face of injuries to some important players.
But that has left them a bit light on the bench.
Losing Martin Corey and Joe McMahon from the backroom staff was a massive blow in March.
Having since taken the scalps of Dublin and Kerry, the players should be commended hugely for the way they responded.
6) ARMAGH
PLENTY of perplexed Armagh faces are sure to await me at Croker tomorrow after having the nerve to consign the All-Ireland champions to such a lowly position!
The strength of their panel is one of the things I have really admired this year.
However, with Soupy Campbell and Oisín O’Neill out injured, they suddenly look much weaker in that regard.
Such a talented team led by a man like Kieran McGeeney are more than capable of shoving this ranking back down my throat.
But we are at the business end of the Championship now. And as I learned in 1997 after Meath’s reign as All-Ireland champions was ended by Offaly in the Leinster final, it is a very different challenge when you are dealing with the additional pressure as you go from being the hunter to the hunted.
5) TYRONE
OF the teams remaining, Tyrone can make a solid claim to boasting the strongest panel.
Any side that can hold Peter Harte and Ruairí Canavan in reserve is clearly in good nick.
Apart from their big men in the middle, they are mostly a small, nippy team so Croke Park might suit them in one sense.
And if they can consistently hit the heights that they did against Donegal in Ballybofey, Malachy O’Rourke’s side have the ability to beat anyone.
The concern would be whether they can handle the rough and tumble over 70-plus minutes at this stage of the Championship.
4) MONAGHAN
THIS is a Monaghan team I have a lot of time for.
And while they will be up against it in today’s meeting with Donegal, a win could do wonders for them if they can get over the line. On the one hand, they were not tested massively in the group stages.
That being said, there is also a sense that we have not yet seen the best of them.
Jack McCarron is a fantastic player to have back in and they would have been disappointed to have lost two Donegal by two points in Ulster on a day when they were caught by the hooter.
Gabriel Bannigan’s charges are a good running team who are always tough to beat.
By all accounts, Andy Moran has had a massive impact behind the scenes too.
3) DUBLIN
ASIDE from a brilliant display in Salthill when their backs were against the wall after losing to Meath, Dublin have flattered to deceive.
Are they still capable of setting the world alight?
If Con O’Callaghan is fully fit, today might be the day to answer that question.
The wake-up call they got against Meath was a catalyst for significant improvement for the Dubs. There is no doubt about that.
They have been good at times but there is still more in them.
And their team is still packed with players who know more than anybody else about what is required to win on the big days at Croke Park.
2) DONEGAL
NOTWITHSTANDING their defeat to Tyrone, Donegal have probably been the most consistent team throughout the season.
Are they depending too heavily on Michael Murphy? Perhaps that is unfair to the supporting cast.
Nevertheless, they cannot afford for their prodigal son to be off-form.
They cut loose in the second half against Louth and the Wee County were no match for them. Getting over Monaghan would be a huge step for Donegal as this is no easy task.
You would certainly sympathise with them over the six-day turnaround.
Having said that, if they were playing in the second game tomorrow instead, Jim McGuinness would complain that they were getting home too late on a Sunday night.
It is all part of the siege mentality he is aiming to generate. In his eyes, it’s Donegal against the rest of the world.
And that could ultimately work in their favour.
1) KERRY
WHEN you back a team like Kerry into a corner, expect them to come out fighting.
And with David Clifford in red-hot form again, the possibilities are endless. The man is unbelievable.
Since the defeat to Meath, there has been a bit of deflecting going on in the Kingdom.
By playing down their chances, people like Darragh Ó Sé have been doing their bit to try to take the pressure off them.
Going to Croke Park as underdogs is an unusual scenario for Kerry to find themselves in. But they will relish that too.
While they have been badly hit by injuries, Jack O’Connor is still taking a squad packed full of talent up to the capital tomorrow.
Even if he fielded his second-best XV, they would still probably trouble most teams.
The season starts tomorrow for Kerry.
Write them off at your peril.
