These two teams are trending in opposite directions with Marquette struggling and Xavier getting hot at the right time. Xavier must keep winning to stay off the bubble, while Marquette needs to build momentum. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Marquette-Xavier prediction and pick.
Marquette is 22-9 this season but has lost two straight and three of its last five games. It has significant wins against Maryland, Purdue, Georgia, Wisconsin, Creighton, Georgetown twice, and Villanova. It has also lost to Iowa State, Xavier, UConn twice, St. John’s twice, Creighton, and Villanova. The Golden Eagles need a win to gain momentum before the NCAA Tournament starts.
Xavier is 21-10 this season, with notable wins against Wake Forest, Villanova, UConn, Georgetown, and Creighton. They also have notable losses against Michigan, Cincinnati, UConn, Marquette, Georgetown, St. John’s twice, Creighton, and Villanova. Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell need to have a great game again so that Xavier can feel safer in the tournament.
Here are the Marquette-Xavier College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Big East Tournament Odds: Marquette-Xavier Odds
Marquette: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -142
Xavier: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +118
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
How to Watch Marquette vs. Xavier
Time: 2:30 pm ET/11:30 am PT
TV: Peacock
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Marquette Will Cover The Spread/Win
Marquette has a lot of talent on offense and has been one of the more consistent units in the Big East. They score 76.9 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 44.6%, and a three-point percentage of 32.5%. However, their recent play caused them to fall 33rd in adjusted offense on Ken Pom with a rating of 119.1.
Four Golden Eagles are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Kam Jones is easily the best scorer on the team, averaging 19.2 points per game. He is also the team’s best passer, averaging 6.1 assists per game. In comparison, the rest of the team is averaging 14 assists overall.
Jones makes this offense go as one of the best players in the country, but he can’t do it all by himself. David Joplin is a bruiser and Stevie Mitchell has been solid off the wing. Marquette’s playmakers, combined with an inconsistent Xavier defense, make for an excellent matchup for the Golden Eagles.
Marquette’s defense has been more reliable than their offense this season. They allow 67.6 points per game, 43.3% from the field, and 31.3% from behind the arc. They have made gains in KenPom, jumping to 22nd in adjusted defense, with a rating of 96.
Marquette has struggled on the boards as a team, averaging only 34.3 rebounds per game. David Joplin is the rebounding leader, averaging 5.4 per game and leading the team in blocks, averaging one per game. Marquette has a much better perimeter defense in comparison. Four Golden Eagles average at least one steal, and Stevie Mitchell leads the entire team, averaging 2.3 per game.
Marquette’s defense can swarm opposing offenses very well on the perimeter, which will cause issues for Xavier. Even with the Musketeers’ great offense, Marquette has the defense to cause problems for any team, and this matchup is no different.
Why Xavier Will Cover The Spread/Win
Xavier’s offense has been one of the best in the Big East, scoring more than Marquette. They score 77.7 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 46.5%, and a three-point percentage of 38.5%. However, they have fallen slightly in KenPom, ranking 62nd with an adjusted offensive rating of 115.1.
Three different Musketeers are averaging over double digits in scoring this season. Freemantle is the best scorer on the team, averaging 17.4 points per game. Conwell is the second-best scorer, just behind Freemantle, averaging 16 points per game. They also move the ball very well, averaging 17 assists per game, and the assists leader is Dayvion McKnight, averaging 4.3 per game.
This offense has been great, and they can score with almost anyone in college basketball this year. Conwell and Freemantle make a great inside-out duo and carry offense, making this a different type of Sean Miller team. This matchup is a giant X-factor because Marquette has a great defense and can slow down most teams in the Big East.
Xavier’s defense has been inconsistent this season and has not been a typical Sean Miller-level defense. They allow 70.3 points per game, 44.2% from the field and 33.4% from behind the arc. However, this defense has stayed in the top-40 in adjusted defense in KenPom, with a rating of 98.
This frontcourt has been good but lacks depth outside of Freemantle. He leads the team in rebounding and blocks with 7.1 and 0.9 per game, respectively. This perimeter defense has been much better and is a strength on their defense. Five players are averaging at least one steal with Dailyn Swan and Dayvion McKnight tied for the team lead at 1.5 per game.
This defense has its work cut out for it against Marquette. This is an intriguing matchup because the Marquette offense has fallen, and a red-hot Xavier team will give them issues.
Final Marquette-Xavier Prediction & Pick
Marquette is not as desperate as Xavier and that is the difference. Xavier covers and wins outright in a high-scoring game in the Big East to get one step closer to the tourney.
Final Marquette-Xavier Prediction & Pick: Xavier +2.5 (-110)
The post Marquette vs. Xavier prediction, odds, pick for Big East Tournament appeared first on ClutchPoints.
