While the ultimate goal in March Madness is to win the national championship game, it is the Cinderella stories that seem to last the test of time for college basketball fans around the world. Little-known programs from small schools with barely recruited players always seem to hit some big shots and knock off powerhouse teams every year in the NCAA Tournament. They capture the hearts of the nation when they do so. You can certainly expect another deep yet unexpected run by a lower-seeded team this year, so here are the schools with the most Cinderella run potential in 2025.
Grand Canyon: 13-seed
Grand Canyon had a mini-Cinderella run last season. As a 12-seed, they beat Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 before being bested by number four Alabama. The team only won a few less games this year, but they might be able to win even more tournament games. Tyon Grant-Foster was the hero last season, and he is back on Bryce Drew’s roster.
Grant-Foster’s scoring numbers might be down this season, but that is because he has embraced more of a team-first role. JaKobe Coles, Rayshon Harrison, and Duke Brennan all average double-digit scoring figures in addition to Grant-Foster. Plus, Grand Canyon gets more of a home-court advantage than almost any other team in the field, as their fanbase travels better than anybody else’s.
The energy will be high when the Lopes take on Maryland, and they might be on a crash course for another low-seeded opponent in round two, as 12-seed Colorado State is actually favored to beat Memphis. That is the perfect path for a GCU Cinderella run.
New Mexico: 10-seed
New Mexico may have lost JT Toppin and Jamal Mashburn Jr. to the transfer portal over the offseason, but they are still a very good team and one certainly capable of making a Cinderella run. Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent is one of the best scorers in the nation, evidenced by his 20.2 points per game. Nelly Junior Joseph provides plenty of scoring production in his own right.
Those two provide the offense, but the team is lock-down on defense, too. The team has six wins against top-50 KenPom teams, so they certainly have the talent to knock off some of the top dogs this March Madness. They also have the size to compete with any Power-Four school, unlike a lot of mid-majors.
SIU Edwardsville: 16-seed
Our lone 16th seed in this article is SIU Edwardsville. It was only a few years ago when it was widely believed that 16-seed wins over number-one teams were impossible, but two number-16 teams have accomplished that feat in the last handful of years. If a one-seed were to fall this year, it would likely be Houston.
Houston has lost as early as the Sweet 16 in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments despite being the top seed. You can make a case that this Houston team isn’t even as good as either of those teams were. If SIUE is able to prevent LJ Cryer from getting hot from distance, they just might have a chance.
SIEU is in the Big Dance for the first time ever, and they’ve been hungry for this moment for years. A pair of cousins, Ray’Sean and Brian Taylor, lead this team and combined for 31.3 points per game this season. No 16 seed has ever won in the Round of 32, but SIUE has the talent to do so if they were to make it past Houston.
High Point: 13-seed
Teams entering the NCAA Tournament on fire oftentimes go on runs. High Point is certainly hot, as their 15-straight wins are tied for the most in the nation. During this hot stretch, the ball just keeps finding its way into the basket. The team is making 37% of their threes and 60% of their twos over their last 15 games.
Kezza Giffa, Kimani Hamilton, and D’Maurian Williams lead the way in the scoring department. They all contribute more than 13 points per game, and the team averages 82.2 points in total. Like is the case for GCU, a win for the 13-seed might set them up for a relatively easy matchup in the Round of 32, as many are predicting 12-seeded McNeese to win their first game in High Point’s Midwest region.
We listed High Point as one of the most likely teams to succeed in a March Madness round-one upset win. If they pull that off, perhaps their momentum would continue for a couple more rounds.
Liberty: 12-seed
The 3-point shot can make all of the difference in March. Liberty ranks sixth in 3-point percentage (27.1 3PA per game at 39%), but they are somehow even better at 3-point defense. The team is third nationally by only allowing teams to shoot 28.3% from deep. You never know when the long ball will fail, but it can certainly lead a team to a March Madness Cinderella run.
Even if the three ball were to fail the Flames for a game, they are still an uber-efficient team from two in the half-court. Nobody has to go and get theirs on this team. Instead, they play an unselfish brand of basketball that isn’t reliant on any individual player having a big game.
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