March Madness is all about the upsets. Every year, everybody’s brackets get broken after the first round of games because underdog teams beat higher-seeded squads that were expected to win. In this article, we are going to save you the unexpected pain. Here are five teams who could pull off first-round upsets in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Colorado State: 12-seed against Memphis
Colorado State got hot at the right time, and they could carry their momentum forward into March Madness after securing a must-have Mountain West Conference Championship win. The Rams have won 10 straight games on the back of their star player, Nique Clifford. The fifth-year has stepped up in a big way this season and is averaging 19 points per game. He scored 24, 25, and 26 points in Colorado State’s conference tournament games.
Overall, CSU went 10-7 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. Their only three losses in the year of 2025 came against top-60 KenPom teams on the road. The Rams have been unconscious from both inside and outside the 3-point arc during that time. They have the luxury of facing a team that might not be at 100%, either. Five-seeded Memphis might be without Tyrese Hunter. The star guard missed Memphis’ conference championship game while dealing with a foot injury (per collegefootballnetwork.com), and it is looking less and less likely that he will play against CSU.
Even before the injury, the odds were stacked against Memphis. KenPom only has the team as the 51st best in the nation. Despite the seeding difference, this game almost doesn’t even count as an upset alert, as CSU is favored by 2.5 points, per Jeremy Cluff of azcentral.com. Not everybody filling out their brackets will understand the context of this game, though, so taking the 12-seed in this matchup would be smart.
VCU: 11-seed against BYU
Year in and year out, VCU plays hard on the defensive end. They again have one of the best defensive units, so they can again be looked at as an upset threat in the NCAA Tournament. VCU is stacked with great point-of-attack defenders who put in effort on defense.
If opponents get past the Rams’ perimeter defense, then they are funneled to Luke Bamgboye and his 2.2 blocks per game. VCU only allows opponents to shoot 44.7% on 2-pointers. This stifling defense is never easy to go against, and it can certainly neutralize BYU. The Cougars have one of the best offenses in the nation, but offense is more likely to give out come tournament time than defense is.
Let’s not forget that Ryan Odom is the coach of this Rams team, either. Odom was the coach of UMBC when they became the first 16-seed to ever knock off a number-one seed back in 2018, so clearly, he knows the formula for upsetting a higher-ranked program.
UC San Diego: 12-seed against Michigan
While CSU and VCU have been known commodities for years, UC San Diego is a relatively unknown program, but they’ve been all of the buzz as of recent. With this being their fifth season at the Division I level, this is their first year of eligibility, and a Cinderella story seems inevitable.
The team forces turnovers (23.7% of defensive possessions) and they score quickly (79.8 points per game). In fact, the 19.8 points per game off of turnovers that the team generates is the best mark in the nation. Hayden Gray’s 3.21 steals per game are the most in the country. With Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and Tyler McGhie, the team has plenty of scoring, too.
Michigan has the size advantage down low on UC San Diego, but we’ve seen smaller, lower-seeded teams have some luck with a fast and gritty style of play in recent years. The size the Tritons lack at the center position they make up for with lanky wings and guards. Hot teams often keep their streaks alive in March, and UC San Diego is tied for the nation lead with 15 straight victories. While not on this list, Akron is another small team that can run teams out of the gym.
High Point: 13-seed against Purdue
High Point’s first-round opponent is the 2024 NCAA Tournament runner-up, Purdue. The Panthers have the potential to knock off the Boilermakers in the Round of 64, though. High Point is tied with UC San Diego with a nation-leading 15 straight wins. High Point has one of the highest octane offenses in the nation.
They score 82.2 points per game with Kezza Giffa, Kimani Hamilton, and D’maurian Williams all scoring 13-plus points per game. The team has been uber-efficient as of recent, connecting on 37% of their threes and 60% of their twos since they last lost. Purdue’s Braden Smith is one of the best players in March Madness, but no Zach Edey could lead to the team struggling against someone like High Point. Purdue has one of the toughest roads to the Final Four, and their first-round matchup is a big reason why.
Liberty: 12-seed against Oregon
The 3-point shot is ever so prevalent in modern basketball. Liberty is one of the top deep ball shooting teams in the nation, as they knock 27.1 deep attempts per game in at a 39% clip. On the other end, teams only shoot 28.3% against them on 3-pointers. This discrepancy could pay off in dividends in the first-round, especially considering the Oregon Ducks team that they are playing is a subpar shooting team. Additionally, while you can say that Liberty lives and dies by the three, they are actually incredibly efficient in the half-court on 2-pointers, too.
This Oregon team was only ninth in defensive efficiency and 10th in offensive efficiency in the Big Ten, so they might be a somewhat fluky five seed. That gives Liberty March Madness upset potential.
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