The Memphis Grizzlies are facing odd-man-out situations in more ways than one as the 2024-25 NBA regular season winds down. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been battling injuries all season, leaving Taylor Jenkins to make some difficult rotational decisions. Lineup inconsistency has been the main factor in Memphis falling down the Western Conference rankings in 2025. Unfortunately, with 12 games remaining, the Grizzlies (43-27) are running out of time to gain an edge in most tiebreaker situations.
A 115-99 road loss to the lottery-bound Portland Trail Blazers has the Grizzlies looking for answers with a dozen regular season dates left on the calendar. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder (57-12) are well clear of the field, with the top spot already assured. The Houston Rockets (45-25) and Denver Nuggets (44-26) are tied for second place as the NCAA’s March Madness action tips off. Lebron James and Luka Doncic have led the Los Angeles Lakers (43-25) on a late-season surge up the standings, leaping over the Grizzlies in the process.
Forgot seeding for a second, mostly because matchups matter more in the postseason. The Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers, and Grizzlies are in a four-team fight for first-round homecourt advantage in the NBA Playoffs. One will fall short of the top-four seed requirements and might get passed by Steve Kerr’s squad as well.
The Golden State Warriors (40-29) are 8-2 over the last 10 games and the line for people ready to completely bet against Stephen Curry remains empty. Sure, the Warriors are three games behind the Grizzlies (as of March 19) but Jimmy Butler has reinvigorated the entire Bay Area. Kerr has done more with less and the Warriors already have a 2-1 record against the Grizzlies this season, a crucial tiebreaker. Meanwhile, Taylor Jenkins is still searching for a winning recipe against teams with above-.500 records.
If the Grizzlies are at war with the Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves (40-31) to just remain above the NBA Play-In Tournament line, Memphis will not be hosting a Game Seven. Earning those hosting rights will be an uphill battle as well. The first tiebreak is head-to-head records.
Grizzlies cannot waive white flag
The Grizzlies are 1-3 against the Rockets, meaning a tie in the standings does Memphis no good. Houston does have six games remaining against top-six teams, so Ja Morant and company will be rooting for the Lakers and Nuggets on some nights. The Los Angeles Clippers (39-30) and Warriors could also help Memphis significantly with wins over Houston. Basically, rooting against Alperen Sengun regardless of opponent is the newest hobby for fans down on Beale Street.
Beating out the Rockets would also give the Grizzlies a division title, the third parameter considered when breaking tiebreakers (behind the overall record and head-to-head). Earning that honor would help Memphis should there be any three-way ties with the Lakers, Nuggets, or Warriors. Falling short means getting squeezed out just a bit more in the Western Conference’s middle-class crunch.
Thankfully for Memphis, LeBron James and Luka Doncic are about to face a trie postseason stress test as the Lakers have the third-toughest remaining schedule. Los Angeles does have a 2-1 lead in the season series though, making the next meeting (March 29) a must-win for the Grizzlies. A loss puts them below the Lakers and Rockets in the event of any ties.
Denver, facing the 10th-toughest remaining schedule, split two close games in the FedEx Forum back in November. The Nuggets will host the rubber match on April 11 in the second-to-last game of the season, winner takes the tiebreaker. Odds will be against Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. for that trip to the Rocky Mountains given Jokic’s MVP-caliber season so far. However, Taylor Jenkins cannot waive a white flag in the Mile High City unless a top-four seed is secured.
It’s hard to see that being possible with so many moving parts in play. The Grizzlies have the ninth-toughest road to close out the 82-game slate. Visiting the Clippers and Thunder will be no road trip picnics. Hosting the Lakers, Boston Celtics (50-19), and Warriors over the following four-day stretch is one of the most unwelcoming homestands an NBA team could imagine. Then it’s off to face the not-so-hot Miami Heat (29-40) and downright surprising Detroit Pistons (39-31). A three-game road trip ends in Charlotte.
The Grizzlies host the Timberwolves, go see the Nuggets, and then host the season finale against the drawing-dead Dallas Mavericks (33-36). Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane must close out the season strong given their record against the above-.500 teams. Rarely used tiebreakers like conference win-loss percentage and win-loss percentage versus NBA Playoff teams do not favor them at all.
So that’s the equation. Win, root against Houston, and the other team’s results would not matter as much in Memphis. Lose even one more game against a lottery team and the Rockets, Lakers, and Nuggets will all be a few games clear of the Grizzlies. Then the fans will really start to grumble.
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