Buy, sell, or hold? It’s the dilemma of every investment from finances to sporting fandom. From front offices to card collector conventions, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane debate rages on after the NBA All-Star break. The Memphis Grizzlies are still learning to appreciate Zach Edey, not to mention their other NBA Rookie of the Year candidate. Jaylen Wells, acquired using a second-round pick, has been outstanding and was near untouchable in trade negotiations. Taylor Jenkins’ muscle-flexing Grizzlies (36-19) are battling for second place but the finally fully healthy roster is ready for an NBA Finals run.
Well, internally that’s the vibe but everyone tries to boost their own stock. Markets shift though and the last 10 games have been hit-and-miss in Memphis. Whispers that Ja Morant and the Grizzlies might get a divorce are leaking out. The Grizzlies were 20-10 after a December 23 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers (31-24) and have cooled off considerably since Christmas. They have gone 15-9 since those gifts were ripped open yet the front office decided to stand relatively pat at the NBA Trade Deadline. Taylor Jenkins is now searching for ways to increase this roster’s value before the regular season markets close.
The Grizzlies have grown their market cap (wins) over last season’s injury-ravaged experience. However, there are still signs this venture may implode before making a Western Conference Finals appearance. Memphis was in second but fell to third place immediately after the NBA All-Star break with a 127-113 loss to the Indiana Pacers. Now the Denver Nuggets (37-19), with two former NBA MVP winners running the show, hold the advantage.
Everyone out West knows avoiding the Oklahoma City Thunder (44-10) as long as possible is crucial to long-term survival in the postseason. So where does everyone stand with under 30 games to go before the NBA Playoffs begin?
Ja Morant gets 90% of the headlines, for better or worse. Finishing with 12 points and six assists on 4-for-15 shooting in Indianapolis was discouraging considering the All-Star’s previous 10-game stretch. In fact, the entire season has been one long underwhelming return from last year’s suspension and injury-laden experience.
Morant has been good for 25-27 points, 4-6 rebounds, and 7-8 assists on better than 46% shooting from the field. He is a significant step below career highs of 49.3% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range in 33 games this season. (Season averages with the previous 10 games in parentheses.)
- Points: 20.4 (18)
- Rebounds: 4.2 (3.7)
- Assists: 7.4 (6.1)
- Steals/Blocks: 1.2/0.3 (1.0/0.3)
- FGA%: 44.2% (42.1%)
- 3PA%: 31.4 (34.4%)
- Turnovers: 3.8 (3.6)
- Market Trend: The All-World wonder is barely above 20 points per game while playing 28.8 minutes a night. Morant missed the NBA All-Star Game and will likely fall short of All-NBA Team voting standards. Rivals executives are trying to brew up some bargains, though the Grizzlies gave those attempts a good laugh in response. Morant’s market is somewhat stable. Not many are willing to buy at the peak, not many are willing to sell off their stock in the 24-year-old sitting in second place out West. Sell on Morant’s short-term future in the West but only a few shares. Buy if you hold no Morant stock.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is in line for a huge pay raise and contract extension this offseason. Will the Grizzlies pay All-NBA Supermax money to the small market fan favorite even though perhaps an overpay for a not quite All-World top-10 level talent?
- Points: 22.9 (23.7)
- Rebounds: 6.1 (4.9)
- Assists: 2.2 (2.4)
- Steals/Blocks: 1.3/1.6 (0.8/1.7)
- FGA%: 49.5% (50.3%)
- 3PA%: 36.5% (45.1%)
- Turnovers: 2.3 (2.7)
- Market Trend: The now two-time NBA All-Star is averaging career highs in points, steals, and assists. It’s hard to deny the 25-year-old looks poised for a blue-chip breakout over the next five seasons. Buy and take a strong position.
Desmond Bane is in the unfortunate position of being the third wheel on a team that can barely afford to keep two after this season. The cap crunch is coming eventually; it’s why the front office used a first-round pick to shed Marcus Smart’s salary. How Bane performs in the playoffs will be more of a factor when it comes to any future regrouping around Morant and Jackson Jr. Still, Bane has been picking up the slack after spending time on the injury report.
- Points: 18.3 (20.6)
- Rebounds: 5.8 (7.6)
- Assists: 5.4 (4.9)
- Steals/Blocks: 1.2/0.4 (0.6/0.4)
- FGA%: 49.8% (50.4%)
- 3PA%: 39.7% (47.5%)
- Turnovers: 2.6 (3.1)
- Market Trend: Closing out the regular season with better results in clutch moments would go a long way to convincing EVP/GM Zach Kleiman to keep the current core trio together. Bane has to pick up Morant’s slack as offensive insurance, maintain the rebounding rate, and find a way to stay on the court (43 games played). The no-longer-young Grizzlies have missed out on too many chemistry-building repetitions over the past two seasons already. Buy, but only a few shares.
Purdue alum Zach Edey was considered a lottery gamble going into the 2024 NBA Draft. The Grizzlies seem to have won the bet with the ninth overall pick. The former NCAA Player of the Year had five points, 11 rebounds, and a block in a return to his college’s backyard.
- Points: 9.3 (9.4)
- Rebounds: 7.7 (8.7)
- Assists: 0.9 (0.9)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.6/1.2 (0.7/1.5)
- FGA%: 57.7 (56.1%)
- 3PA%: 34.9 (27.3%)
- Turnovers: 1.4 (1.1)
- Market Trend: Edey’s scoring, passing, and defense look better every day. Turnovers are trending down as the game slows down. NBA bodies are getting bodied off the block by the 7-foot-4 glass-cleaning possession-claiming machine. Buy steady increments over the next three years.
Santi Aldama scored 10 points (4-14 FG, 2-10 3PT) and grabbed seven rebounds in the post-All-Star break loss in Indiana. The Grizzlies are encouraging the soon-to-be restricted free agent to keep firing away though. At 24 years old, Aldama looks like a fringe All-Star in the making. The Spanish Sensation would step into the third wheel role should Morant, Bane, or Jackson Jr. go down.
- Points: 12.8 (12.9)
- Rebounds: 6.7 (5.6)
- Assists: 2.6 (2.6)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.8/0.5 (0.4/0.8)
- FGA%: 48.7% (46.8%)
- 3PA%: 37.8% (40.8%)
- Turnovers: 1.0 (0.6)
- Market Trend: Santi Aldama can hit a 30-point night streak and usually scores around 20 points when given a bigger role. He has 10+ rebounds in nine games and a season-high of 17 boards. Buy in several different currencies just to be safe.
Brandon Clarke was mentioned in several trade rumors as a makeweight contract because back up big men are only worth so much in Memphis. The Grizzlies have Zach Edey on a rookie scale deal but Jaren Jackson Jr.’s next contract will be north of $300 million. Can Clarke’s wages be justified given the current role and expected stats moving forward?
- Points: 7.8 (8.3)
- Rebounds: 4.9 (4.3)
- Assists: 1.0 (0.9)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.8/0.5 (0.7/0.8)
- FGA%: 61.2% (58.9%)
- 3PA%: 6.3% (0.0%)
- Turnovers: 0.6 (1.0)
- Market Trend: Non-shooters are non-factors in the NBA Playoffs. Brandon Clarke has been unable to space the floor this season. The paint collapsing around the Big Three is untenable, especially against Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder. Sell this summer regardless of any pleasant surprise shooting in the postseason.
Scotty Pippen Jr. was the rotational causality coming out of the NBA All-Star break. Taylor Jenkins went to a 10-man gameplan and Pippen Jr. got just two garbage time minutes against the Pacers. The Grizzlies need more from whoever is taking over ball-handling duties while Morant rests. Bane, Wells, Jackson Jr., and Aldama have done well enough. Pippen Jr.’s minutes have been shaved, and it matches up with the 24-year-old’s shooting slump.
- Points: 9.3 (6.9)
- Rebounds: 3.3 (3.0)
- Assists: 4.4 (3.3)
- Steals/Blocks: 1.2/0.4 (1.0/0.4)
- FGA%: 47.3% (50%)
- 3PA%: 35.8% (33.3%)
- Turnovers: 1.8 (1.3)
- Market Trend: Scotty Pippen Jr. has made seven (7) three-pointers since January 7 and has more games with no attempts than multiple makes. He has 19 turnovers and 28 three-point attempts over the same period. (Hold until a replacement is found, then sell for any remaining value.)
Jaylen Wells has made the jump from DII Sonoma State, to Power 5 Washington State, to NBA top-two starting lineup look easy over the past three years. Three-point shooting has taken the biggest dip but, hopefully, the NBA All-Star break was used wisely and Wells can avoid the dreaded rookie wall.
- Points: 11.3 (9.2)
- Rebounds: 3.2 (3.1)
- Assists: 1.6 (1.3)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.6/0.1 (0.7/0.1)
- FGA%: 44.7 (49.3%)
- 3PA%: 37.4 (28.2%)
- Turnovers: 0.9 (0.4)
- Market Trend: Jaylen Wells is already getting All-Defense and Rookie of the Year consideration. The 21-year-old is getting compared to Herb Jones but with Jimmy Butler upside. Buy despite the hype. Wells has passed every test.
Luke Kennard is a known commodity in NBA circles. His counting stats numbers are down but Kennard is still a respected locker-room leader and a feared bench option. Opponents know the Grizzlies can call up a one-man offensive flurry if the starting lineup’s shots stop falling.
- Points: 9.3 (6.9)
- Rebounds: 2.9 (2.2)
- Assists: 3.3 (3.5)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.7/0.1 (0.8/0.1)
- FGA%: 47.1% (40.6%)
- 3PA%: 47.6% (38.2%)
- Turnovers: 1.1 (1.6)
- Market Trend: One of the best under-pressure shooters on the planet will come in handy when the Grizzlies hit hard times. Hold until Wells works through a slight shooting slump.
The Grizzlies are letting GG Jackson flex a bit while knocking off surgery-related rust. Jackson was in a walking boot to start training camp. The 20-year-old is back in the rotation for the regular season’s stretch run and Memphis is already seeing an uptick in production.
- Points: 9.8 (11)
- Rebounds: 3.7 (3.8)
- Assists: 0.9 (1.2)
- Steals/Blocks: 0.5/0.2 (0.6/0.3)
- FGA%: 40.9% (41.8%)
- 3PA%: 31.5% (32.6%)
- Turnovers: 1.4 (1.3)
- Market Trend: GG Jackson is still one of the league’s youngest players. He is one three-point shot away from superstar status. Buy at any price.
Vince Williams Jr. (5.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Jay Huff (7.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG) are top-notch shape-shifting reserve bigs. Huff can stretch the defense while Williams Jr. bullies opponents on the low block. Buy their stock, but just a bit to diversify the portfolio. Cam Spencer has shown game-changing, series-titling shooting promise in small sample sizes. Some lottery tickets go above the visor. Stick Spencer in the glove box just in case.
Yuki Kawamura is fun but would be a full-on defensive sieve in a seven-game series. Sell any stock that requires a Yuki two-way contract conversion before the NBA Playoffs to pay out. It likely will not be worth much soon. The Grizzlies are starting to cycle through 10-day contract options and the buyout market still has some enticing candidates for that last roster spot.
So will the Grizzlies agree with this assessment? The only way to find out is to tune in over the next two months. Taylor Jenkins’ rotations and Zach Kleiman’s summer contract splurge will signal to the fans exactly what the decision-makers think of the roster’s potential.
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