Two historic college basketball programs clash in the Round of 32, with Houston (31-4) meeting Gonzaga (26-8) at the INTRUST Bank Arena. It’s time to continue our March Madness College Basketball odds series with a Gonzaga-Houston prediction and pick.
Houston, the No. 1 seed of the Midwest region, used a dominant second half to cruise past SIU Edwardsville 78-40 in the first round. The win was the latest of the Cougars’ current 14-game win streak, going back to early February. Coming off back-to-back Sweet Sixteen exits, Houston is still seeking its first National Championship in school history.
Gonzaga was almost equally as dominant as Houston in the first round, beating Georgia 89-68. While eight/nine matchups are typically neck-and-neck, Gonzaga won the battle of the Bulldogs in dominant fashion. Led by the legendary Mark Few, the team has now won five straight, including a WCC Tournament title win over rival St. Mary’s.
Here are the Gonzaga-Houston March Madness College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Gonzaga-Houston Odds
Gonzaga: +5.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +168
Houston: -5.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -205
Over: 139.5 (-115)
Under: 139.5 (-105)
How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Houston
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET / 5:40 p.m. PT
TV: TNT and MAX
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Gonzaga Will Cover The Spread/Win
Houston has been dominant for most of the season, but it has not had to face many elite offenses in the Big 12. The few times they have thus far, the Cougars have struggled when teams force them into a shootout. Of their four losses on the year, three have been against teams with top-10 offenses. Gonzaga, averaging the second-most points in the country, is currently seventh on KenPom with a 124.1 offensive rating.
Overall, Houston is just 3-3 straight-up and against the spread against top-10 offenses. Though a small sample size, the Cougars’ 50-50 mark in such scenarios pales in comparison to its 31-4 overall record.
Unlike some previous years, this iteration of Gonzaga predicates itself on offense much more than defense. The Bulldogs tend to struggle against teams who can match their pace and overall offense, which is not Houston’s strength. While efficient, the Cougars average just 74.3 points per game, 130th in the country.
Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win
They can look elite in moments, but this is not the typical Gonzaga team. The Bulldogs went just 5-5 against Quad 1 teams on the year, including losing both regular season matchups against St. Mary’s. Their uncharacteristic 14-4 conference record failed to make them WCC regular season champions for the first time since 1996-1997.
Including its Round of 64 win over Georgia, Gonzaga is just 15-19 ATS on the year. The Bulldogs have yet to play a game as the underdog but are just 5-6 straight-up and ATS as a single-digit favorite — games that are expected to be close affairs.
Gonzaga’s high-scoring offense has not been tested much, but they are just 3-3 when held below 80 points. Houston’s No. 1 scoring defense has only allowed 80 or more points three times all season.
Final Gonzaga-Houston Prediction & Pick
In a battle between the top defense in the country and the second-best scoring offense, whichever team can force the other into its desired game flow will come out victorious. Both teams appear to be peaking at the right time, but Houston has fared better in recent similar matchups, limiting the high-powered offenses of Texas Tech, BYU, and Iowa State over the last month.
During its 14-game win streak, Houston has topped 75 points just four times. The Cougars have been elite at forcing teams into their style of play all year but especially adept in recent weeks. With a 14-3 Quad 1 record and a 6-4 ATS record as a single-digit favorite, Houston is the more battle-tested team of the two.
Wherever Gonzaga excels offensively, Houston is just as potent defensively. The Bulldogs make the most shots and three-pointers in the country, an area the Cougars are also the best at defending.
Save for a three-point overtime loss to San Diego State early in the year, Houston has only lost to legitimate title contenders. This Gonzaga team just does not have that ceiling.
Final Gonzaga-Houston Prediction & Pick: Houston -5.5 (-102)
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