It is not often that a women’s college basketball player breaks through to mainstream media attention, but USC’s JuJu Watkins firmly fits that mold. Ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, all eyes will be on Watkins and the Trojans as they seek their first national championship since 1984.
Watkins is not the only star of the team, as senior forward Kiki Iriafen joined her as a first-team All-Big 10 selection. USC’s head coach, Lindsay Gottlieb, also received the 2025 Big 10 Coach of the Year award in her first year with the conference.
Despite a loss to UCLA in the Big 10 Championship Game, USC enters the women’s March Madness bracket as one of the four No. 1 seeds for the second consecutive year. They enter the championship tournament with a 28-3 record and the No. 4-ranked team in the country.
All four No. 1 seeds are clear championship contenders in both NCAA Tournaments, but they are even more prominent in women’s basketball. Unlike the men’s tournament, in which a No. 8 seed has come out on top, no team below the No. 3 seed has ever won the women’s March Madness. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994, the No. 1 seeds have won 23 of the last 30 national titles.
In their first-round matchup, Watkins will lead the Trojans into a clash with Southern Conference champions UNC Greensboro at the Galen Center. USC will begin its journey to the National Championship Game on March 22 at 3 p.m. ET/noon P.T.
Round of 64: USC vs. UNC Greensboro
In her second NCAA women’s basketball tournament appearance, Watkins will lead USC against UNC Greensboro. In addition to the Trojans’ clear talent advantage, they will also have a geographical edge. The Spartans will have to fly across the country to Los Angeles, where USC will host its first two tournament games.
UNC Greensboro enters the matchup riding a 14-game win streak, culminating with a 65-57 overtime win over Chattanooga to win the Southern Conference Tournament. The Spartans have not lost since dropping a Jan. 16 matchup with Wofford.
As a defensive-minded team, no singular player on the Spartans dominates their scoring output. Senior guard Jayde Gamble leads them with just 11.8 points per game. Freshman Nya Smith is the only other player averaging double figures with 11.0 points per outing.
Unsurprisingly, No. 1 seeds rarely lose early in the NCAA women’s tournament. Only once has a No. 1 seed ever fallen to a No. 16 seed, when Harvard topped Stanford 71-67 in 1998.
Before beginning conference play, UNC Greensboro went 9-5 in non-conference play, including consecutive losses to Georgia, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Anything can happen in March, but it is safe to assume USC will advance to the second round.
JuJu Watkins, USC’s Potential Round of 32 matchup
Should USC advance to the second round of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament, they would face either No. 8-seeded California or No. 9-seeded Mississippi State. The Bears are favored to win that game, but only by 2.5 points.
California would be the familiar matchup for USC after the two schools shared a Pac-12 membership until its recent dissolution. The Golden Bears went 25-8 in their first year with the ACC, finishing seventh in the conference after a first-round tournament loss to No. 6-ranked Notre Dame.
Likewise, Mississippi State went 21-11 on the year, including just 7-9 in the SEC. The Bulldogs went just 8-10 down the stretch of the year after beginning the season at 13-1. They enter the tournament off a loss to Ole Miss in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Regardless of which team USC ends up against, Watkins and the Trojans would be sizeable favorites against both. The team’s worst loss of the year came on Feb. 2 against Iowa, a team that still displayed far more year-long consistency than either California or Mississippi State.
As the No. 1 seed, USC will still host its second-round matchup against either team. They should fare well in both games and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Biggest threats to JuJu Watkins, USC in Regional 4
Although anything but a Final Four appearance would be a disappointment for USC, the Trojans will face a murderer’s row of opponents to get there. The Regional 4 is arguably the toughest of the four regions in the bracket, with UConn, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kentucky all also looking to break through.
As the No. 2 seed, UConn is the clear biggest threat to USC’s Final Four aspirations. Led by 2021 Player of the Year Paige Bueckers, the Huskies topped off a 10-game win streak with a dominant 70-50 nod over Creighton in the Big East Championship Game. In any given season, the 31-3 Geno Auriemma-led team could easily be a No. 1 seed.
However, USC and UConn have already met once in the regular season. The JuJu Watkins Show was on full display as the sophomore dropped a game-high 25 points, powering the Trojans to a gutsy 72-70 win. A rematch would occur in the Elite Eight and make for one of the top matchups of the entire NCAA Tournament.
Iowa, one of the three teams that owns a win over USC, is another obvious threat in the region. While no longer led by Caitlin Clark, the Hawkeyes still feature dynamic scorers Lucy Olsen, Hannah Stuelke and Sydney Affolter, each of whom was on the 2024 runner-up team.
The way the bracket works itself out, USC would have to face only one of Iowa, UConn or Oklahoma. Only one of the trio can advance to the Elite Eight, where they would presumably face the Trojans, should they make it through the top half of the region.
JuJu Watkins, USC women’s basketball’s NCAA Tournament outlook
Potential matchups against Kentucky and/or Kansas State could be tricky, but USC should otherwise find themselves at least through to the Elite Eight. However, a rematch with UConn would be the Trojans’ nightmare scenario. While they already own a win over the Huskies, only UCLA matches up with them better than UConn does. In Bueckers’ final collegiate season, a national championship is the only accomplishment that has eluded her decorated career.
Should USC reach the Elite Eight, it will only be dogfights from that point forward. The Trojans have everything they need to win a national championship, but the same can be said for five other teams in the tournament. Should everything go according to plan, the 2025 women’s basketball Final Four should be the most competitive and entertaining contest yet.
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