Most of the women’s basketball teams that will enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament have already been decided on ahead of Selection Sunday. The contenders for the No. 1 seeds are clear, with South Carolina, Texas, USC, and UCLA the most likely to head each regional, according to ESPN.
There’s also not much depth to choose from when it comes to bubble teams, which minimizes some of the mystery around what the finalized bracket will look like. However, the Division 1 Women’s Basketball Committee still has at least one major decision to make: which team will take the final spot.
Princeton, Virginia Tech, and Columbia make up the shortlist of contenders the committee is heavily considering for a bid, and they will base their choice off of overall win-loss record, strength of schedule, key victories, head-to-head and in-conference results, performance against top-tier opponents, or a combination of any of the metrics. ESPN’s Charlie Creme believes it will likely come down to Princeton and Virginia Tech, and he says it’s the “toughest decision” the committee has to make for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at how we got here.
Women’s NCAA Tournament bubble
Columbia’s loss to Harvard in the Ivy League Tournament final not only awarded the conference’s automatic March Madness berth to the Crimson, but it also created the opportunity for at least one other Ivy League squad to receive a bid for the second straight year.
The Tigers are in the running for many reasons, including the fact that they finished one place ahead of Harvard in the Ivy League standings with a 12-2 record. Princeton also had a stronger strength of schedule, impressive non-conference wins, and was able to stay afloat after losing its best player to a season-ending injury. The Tigers’ offensive dominance, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.5 points per game, also helps to tip the scale in their favor.
Virginia Tech’s chances are similar to Princeton’s, with their strengths and weaknesses essentially balancing each other out. The two teams’ NET ratings are nearly equal, as the Hokies sit at 46 and the Tigers at 47. Virginia Tech’s resume might be the toughest hurdle to overcome, too.
The Hokies beat squads like Louisville and Cal but lost to significant non-conference programs, like Syracuse and Stanford. They also dropped four of their final six contests to close out the season, which could be the difference-maker.
Columbia, however, holds a few tiebreaker metrics since the team swept the season series with Princeton and finished first in the Ivy standings. The Lions have been increasingly competitive in recent years, and earning an at-large bid to last year’s NCAA Tournament might be an added factor for the committee to consider.
The list of options might be limited, but the candidates have comparable resumes that are difficult to compare and make the committee’s selection process more challenging.
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