It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Baylor-Duke prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Baylor-Duke.
The first game of Sunday’s second-round slate is in Raleigh, featuring defending national champion UConn versus No. 1 seed Florida. This game follows that one in Raleigh. Ninth-seeded Baylor faces top seed Duke in an East Region Round of 32 clash.
Duke got Cooper Flagg back into its lineup for the first round of March Madness on Friday. Just getting Flagg back into the flow of play is important for Duke, because it reduces the likelihood of rust and inefficiency for Flagg in this second-round game. One of the interesting plot points in this contest is the reunion of Jeremy Roach and Duke. Roach plays for Baylor, so he will be able to give BU coach Scott Drew some tips on what Duke and coach Jon Scheyer run. Roach was an important part of Duke’s 2022 Final Four team under Mike Krzyzewski. He helped Duke remain a force in the ACC the past two seasons. How Duke handles Roach — and how Roach handles this game — will draw a lot of attention from college basketball analysts.
Baylor won the 2021 national championship and was a No. 1 seed in 2022. The Bears have fallen off from those high standards and elite results, but here is their chance to spring a big upset and tell everyone that Baylor basketball is still a force to be reckoned with.
Here are the Baylor-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Baylor-Duke Odds
Baylor: +11.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +550
Duke: -11.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -820
Over: 143.5 (-115)
Under: 143.5 (-105)
How to Watch Baylor vs Duke
Time: 2:40 p.m. ET/11:40 a.m. PT
TV: CBS
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Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Jeremy Roach factor could matter to an extent for Baylor, but the matchup which might give the Bears enough to win this game is Norchad Omier in the paint. Omier is a transfer from the Miami Hurricanes. He has been to a Final Four, having helped The U get that far in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Omier is very familiar with Duke’s system and the Blue Devils’ personnel. He can win his matchup in the paint and give Baylor the muscle and power needed to own the boards while providing substantial rim protection and a little scoring punch as well. If Omier dominates his matchup, that will free up Baylor’s guards at both ends of the floor. Baylor will be able to have good floor balance and an overall distribution of roles which will enable the Bears to keep this game close. The spread is a large one at 11.5. Baylor has been a really good program under coach Scott Drew. The Bears will want to put their best foot forward and make sure Duke doesn’t win this game easily.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke has the better players. It has Cooper Flagg. It won so easily on Friday against Mount Saint Mary’s that it was able to rest its starters and give its bench ample playing time. That’s exactly how a No. 1 seed and tournament favorite (co-favorite?) should handle its business. Duke is really well set up for this game and should feel highly optimistic about its ability to take control of this game. Baylor has not been particularly strong this season. The Bears have been good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but not much more than that. They were a bubble team with a week left in the season. Duke has a dramatically higher ceiling than Baylor does, and that will be clear once the game is over.
Final Baylor-Duke Prediction & Pick
We are leaning to Duke, but Baylor might produce a strong early burst which reduces the live line to Duke -8.5 or -7.5. You might want to wait 10 minutes and see if that opportunity will present itself.
Final Baylor-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -11.5
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