The Florida Gators lack name-brand talent which feels blasphemous in the NIL age. However, they are sizzling hot 30-4 SEC champions that have enough momentum at their backs to clinch the program’s third national title. March Madness data crunching can be overwhelming, but all signs point to the Gators.
The last time Florida basketball was on top of the basketball world, most of their current roster was in preschool or in diapers, and Billy Donovan was the nation’s “Boy Wonder.”
Critics’ biggest gripe with Florida doesn’t have to do with basketball or their tactics. It’s head coach Todd Golden’s winless NCAA Tournament record. However, these Gators are a senior-laden squad that boasts enough roster flexibility to play big or small, inside or outside, and adjust to any opponent. Duke is the nation’s No. 1 team and the favorite in the vast majority of brackets, but in recent years, experience has mattered more than glitzy lottery talent.
The basis for Florida beginning the year well off the radar stemmed from their 327th-ranked scoring defense during a 2023-24 season that culminated with a first-round exit against Colorado. Golden’s rapid turnaround revolved around transforming their 93rd-ranked defense in Ken Pom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating into a top-10 boa constrictor’s nest that crushes the life out of trespassing offenses while still lighting them up on the other end. However, other elements contribute to Florida’s odds.
Guard play is key
Point guard Walter Clayton Jr. dropped out of the NBA Draft year to juice his draft potential. He’s done that and more by leading the Gators in scoring, posting averages of 17.5 points a night, 4.3 helpers, and 1.3 steals en route to being named a First-Team All-American. Florida goes as their senior leader does, but he has backup in the backcourt.
The detritus of Florida Atlantic’s 2023 Final Four run landed on Florida’s campus when 6-foot-2, 210-pound guard Alijah Martin transferred to Florida as a graduate transfer. Martin’s athleticism was on display throughout his career and enabled him to play larger than his combo guard dimensions. Senior Will Richard rounds out Florida’s three-guard lineup.
At every phase of the game, Florida isn’t just sound; they’re in the nation’s upper echelon. All three of Florida’s starting guards can shoot the rock. Their effective field goal percentage ranks 20th in the country. Their defense held opponents to the fifth-lowest effective field goal percentage in college basketball and rarely turned it over under pressure.
Their frontcourt won’t be surprised by mid-majors
Despite relying so heavily on their guards, Florida’s experienced bigs separate them from so many of the nation’s top teams. Four players in their rotation are taller than 6-foot-9. Their bigs play a large part in them defending the rim and inhaling offensive boards at the fourth-highest rate in the nation according to Bart Torvik’s metrics.
Sophomore Alex Condon is a 6-foot-11, 230-pound big out of Perth, Australia, averaging 11.4 points, 8.0 boards, and 1.4 blocks. As renowned as he is for his low post-scoring, he’s also a competent shooter beyond the arc. That floor spacing puts even more strain on opposing defenses and could elevate his late first-round draft stock as Florida advances in the NCAA Tournament.
They consistently conquer the nation’s best teams
Ending the season as champion of a conference that delivered 14 teams to the Big Dance portends great things. However, they’ve imposed their will on the entire country. Their 11 Quad 1 wins are tied for fifth-most in the country. They won six straight games to end the regular season. Each of those was against a top-25 team. They waltzed into Auburn and defeated the nation’s then-No. 1 team by nine on their home floor.
UCLA eliminated Coach K’s Zion Williamson-Cam Reddish-RJ Barrett 2019 superteam. Coach John Calipari’s Kentucky freshmen platoons won one national title more than a dozen years ago. In a one-and-done format, inexperience can be detrimental. Theoretically, the Blue Devils should win it all on paper. In reality, Florida fits the silhouette of experienced recent national champions who’ve won it on the hardwood more than Duke does.
A Florida Gator team that’s won 30 games, has talent inside, has great guard play outside, and employs a baby-faced wunderkind head coach. It’s 2006 all over again. If the pre-tournament favorite is determined by what we knew in November, Florida would not factor into the equation. Fortunately, fans know the variables after four months. Florida has made their case, and on Friday, they have a chance to begin delivering their closing statement.
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