It is the eight-nine matchup in the East Region as Baylor faces Mississippi State. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Baylor-Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Baylor is 19-14 on the season and was 10-10 in conference play, earning them the seventh seed in the Big 12 tournament. After a first-round bye, they would face Kansas State, taking a 14-point win in that game. They would then face Texas Tech in the semi-finals. Texas Tech would dominate most of the game. They built an early lead and would lead by 13 going into halftime. They would continue to hold onto that lead while Baylor attempted the comeback. Still, Baylor would fall to Texas Tech, 76-74.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is 21-12 this year and was 8-10 in conference play. That earned them the ten seed in the SEC tournament. In the first round, they would easily dispatch of LSU, winning the game 91-62. They would then face Missouri in the next round. It would be a tight game, with Missouri holding a five-point lead at the end of the first half. Mississippi State would take the lead multiple times in the second half, but Missouri would pull away, winning the game 85-73.
Here are the Baylor-Mississippi State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Baylor-Mississippi State Odds
Baylor: +1.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -104
Mississippi State: -1.5 (-106)
Moneyline: -115
Over: 144.5 (-110)
Under: 144.5 (-110)
How to Watch Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Time: 12:15 PM ET/ 9:15 AM PT
TV: CBS
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread/Win
Baylor is ranked 29th in KenPom’s current rankings. They are 16th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 58th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor has been solid on offense this year. While they are 105th in the nation in points per game they are also 115th in shooting efficiency this year. Further, they have moved and protected the ball well, sitting 73rd in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Nirchad Omier leads the way to Baylor. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding this year. He comes into the game with 15.9 points per game this year while adding 10.9 rebounds per game this year. He also has 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and one block per game this year.
Meanwhile, VJ Edgecombe has been solid this year. Edgecombe scores 15 points per game while adding 5.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game this year. Further, Robert Wright III has been great this year. He comes in with 11.3 points per game while adding 2.1 rebounds, and a team-leading 4.3 assists per game this year. Finally, Jeremy Roach comes in with 10.3 points per game with 1.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State is 32nd in KenPom’s current rankings. They are 23rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Mississippi State is 33rd in the nation in points per game while sitting 144th in effective field goal percentage. They also play at a fast pace. Mississippi State is 14th in the nation in field goal attempts per game while sitting 24th in the nation in field goals made per game this year. Further, they are 32nd in the nation in rebounds per game this year.
Mississippi State has been led by Josh Hubbard. He is scoring 18.7 points per game this year while adding 2.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this year. He is joined in the backcourt by Claudell Harris Jr. Harris is scoring 9.5 points per game while adding 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 0.8 steals per game.
Meanwhile, KeShawn Murphy leads the team in rebounding. He comes in with 7.5 rebounds per game while adding 11.8 points per game, 1.6 assists, and 1.2 blocks per game. Finally, Cameron Matthews leads the team in assists and steals. Matthews comes in with 3.6 assists and 2.5 steals per game. He is also scoring 7.2 points and bringing in 6.6 rebounds per game this year.
Final Baylor-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
These two offensive units have some similarities. While Mississippi State scores more, Baylor has been more efficient in their scoring, playing at a slower pace. Further, Baylor has the better defense in this one. They are 89th in the nation in points per game and are 151st in opponent shooting efficiency. Mississippi State is 222nd in opponent points per game while sitting 216th in opponent shooting efficiency. Finally, Baylor has been solid on the offensive glass this year. They are 32nd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage while Mississippi State is 57th. These are all small margins, but in a game that is going to be tight, the small margins all favor Baylor.
Final Baylor-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Baylor +1.5 (-114)
The post Baylor vs. Mississippi State prediction, odds, pick for Men’s March Madness 2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
