At the time of publishing, Israel and Iran remain under a fragile ceasefire.
Yet, there are unmistakable signs that July 2025, like June, will be another month of intense, persistent, and relentless conflict.
Warnings foretold: Geopolitical volatility unfolding
In Acts of Violence – The World Is On Edge This Summer, published on 2 June, I warned: “June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, combustible months in recent memory… The Middle East: Iran-Israel tension, asymmetric threats, and proxy volatility.”
Events unfolded rapidly thereafter, including exchanges of fire and escalations across multiple fronts.
This was not an isolated flare-up, but the latest chapter in a larger story I’ve been tracking and warning of for nearly a decade.
But the risk extends beyond just tactical confrontations. Looking medium term, over the next 18 months, Iran’s leadership is navigating an increasingly complex and fragile environment, both domestically and regionally.
Given the mounting pressures, both internal and external, a leadership transition in Iran within the next 18 months is forecast.
A pattern of predictive analysis
This projection is part of a documented pattern of forward-looking analysis:
On 15 April, in The Thucydides Trap, War Cometh, I highlighted how Iran’s escalating conflicts posed risks to global energy security, a warning borne out by recent market volatility and shifting defence postures.
In that same 2 June piece, I explicitly forecast that regional violence would intensify during both June and July, a warning now visibly materialising.
As far back as February 2016, in The USA – Major Themes 2015-2033, I outlined a multi-decade cycle of global disorder that would weaken US hegemony and increase the likelihood of regional flashpoints, especially in the Middle East.
These were not vague sentiments.
They were specific and time-bound warnings, anticipating not just that volatility would emerge, but when and where.
A regional powder keg nearing its flashpoint
Importantly, while Iranian-backed actors have played a role in regional tensions, Israeli military actions and broader US foreign policy choices have also shaped the trajectory of the current escalation.
This conflict is the product of many moving parts, historical grievances, geopolitical strategy, and domestic politics converging into an increasingly combustible mix.
As we enter July, ceasefire agreements remain paper-thin.
Proxy engagements will likely intensify, testing the limits of regional containment. The region stands on a razor’s edge.
History may record June and July 2025 not only as months of sharp escalation, but as early markers of a forecast and definitive inflexion point in Iran’s modern political trajectory.
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