ARSENAL have always been one of England’s biggest and best clubs.
But with that comes a huge spotlight that has seen them crack under pressure and fail to live up to expectations in recent years.
Arsenal have struggled to live up to their own high standards this season[/caption]
Starting today, only on Sun Club, our team of reporters will bring you the inside track on what’s going right and what’s going wrong at the Emirates every week.
DESTINED FOR THE DROP?
THE only way is down for Arsenal after four years of progress and success in the Premier League – at least that’s what the stats suggest.
From 2020/21 to 2023/24, the Gunners improved their points tally in four straight seasons – one of just SIX sides to do so in the Prem era.
They join Leeds United (1996/97 to 1999/00), Chelsea (2001/02 to 2004/05), Aston Villa (2006/07 to 2009/10), Southampton (2012/13 to 2015/16) and Leicester (2017/18 to 2020/21).
Those five all fell off in their fifth season, and all but one was later relegated in the years that followed. A poisoned chalice?
So, should we be surprised that Mikel Arteta’s men have fallen into the same trap, nudged slightly off course on their quest for a Prem crown after four successive campaigns of growth?
The real question is: how will they react?
Having ended the 2019/20 campaign in eighth with 56 points, the Gunners began their rise with 61 points in 20/21, 69 points in 21/22, 84 points in 22/23 and 89 points last season.
A glowing period that has seen the North Londoners transform from top flight obscurity into Prem title challengers.
It is why this 24/25 campaign is feared to be the start of a potential soft decline, one deemed a step backwards by the Emirates faithful.
In the unlikely event Arsenal win every game from now until the end of the season, they would finish on 87 points, and most probably in second place for the third year running with runaway leaders Liverpool 13 points ahead with 10 games left.
The Gunners have fallen 13 points behind Liverpool in the title race[/caption]
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Injuries to key attacking players have badly hampered Arteta and Arsenal on their pursuit of the title, as well as a Prem-high five red cards so far. A near-fatal combination.
It has Arteta scrutinised and the club’s recruitment policy criticised for the first time in years.
Yet those inside the club are consistent in their message of patience, context and looking at the bigger picture, often describing it as peering through a telescope, instead of a microscope.
The bigger picture includes finances. Despite home-grown sales and club-record revenues, Arsenal made overall losses of £17.7m in the financial year ending May 2024.
And while the ultimate goal is silverware, there is a recognition that stability in the Champions League places with the increased revenue from the new 36-team format will stand them in good stead to improve the squad in the near-future without the need to sell big stars.
It is why they chose not to panic in January, regardless of being without a fit centre forward.
But keeping their powder dry and purses full ahead of this summer is viewed as a real game changer, especially with the potential funds on offer should they finish second and reach the latter stages in Europe.
Patience and calm. It is also the reason for the club not rushing into a sporting director replacement for Edu after his November resignation.
They realise how important that appointment is, and is bigger than just a quick January fix.
Make the wrong call in that role, and it could set them back years, while there is trust in interim Jason Ayto to do the groundwork on summer incomings in the meantime.
Meanwhile, Arteta is becoming more and more irritable in press conferences by the suggestion that progress has not been made this term.
Edu Gaspar left his role as Arsenal’s Sporting Director in November[/caption]
In his eyes, given the injuries and suspensions, to ensure they did not fall down the table is an achievement in itself. The numbers suggest he is not far off.
Of the 116 Prem teams to have racked up five or more red cards over a season since 1992/93, they have an average league finish of 11th. Of those teams, 22 were relegated and only five crowned champions.
But maybe, this season was always out of Arteta’s hands, destined to be the stumbling block where the physical and mental fatigue finally catches up with you.
The historians in the Prem archives library would agree.
Jose Mourinho’s Blues may have dropped off in 05/06 – from 95 points to 91 points – but they still won the league, dropping to second place with 83 points in 06/07.
And over the next four years, despite Jose’s September 2007 departure, Chelsea averaged 84.3 points, winning another title under Carlo Ancelotti in 09/10.
For the rest, this four-year curse left its mark. Leeds peaked with Champions League football in 99/00, yet suffered financial meltdown and were relegated four years later.
Martin O’Neil masterminded Villa’s jump from mid-table to a third-straight sixth-place finish in 09/10, only to leave that summer. A dramatic fall culminated with relegation in 15/16.
Southampton enjoyed a glorious four years under Mauricio Pochettino and Ronald Koeman, ending 15/16 in sixth on 63 points. A mighty tumble followed, relegated in 22/23.
Brendan Rodgers twice had Leicester on the brink of the top four in 19/20 and 20/21. By the summer of 2023, the Foxes were in the Championship.
So, Arsenal know the challenge of being knocked back and going again.
We should not underestimate the job Arteta has done in four seasons.
Pep Guardiola has only managed two successive years of points-tally progress at Manchester City. The same went for Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.
Sir Alex Ferguson managed three years of Prem progress on TWO separate occasions with Manchester United.
The difference? All three of them marked those periods with Prem titles – Fergie won three, Pep two and Klopp one.
So far, Arteta has nothing to show for it.
Arteta is lagging behind his managerial rivals when it comes to silverware[/caption]
INJURIES – BAD LUCK OR MISMANAGEMENT?
BUKAYO Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus were all injured in the space of 53 days this season – three of them requiring surgery and the latter two ruled out for the rest of the season.
Arteta believes this is down to bad luck more than anything, especially given their impressive injury record over the past few seasons, despite the loss of hugely respected head of medical services Gary O’Driscoll to Manchester United in July 2023.
Yet there is an argument to suggest this flurry of injuries was a ticking time bomb.
Arteta is hesitant to rotate and Saka is hardly ever rested – missing just three Prem games between August 2021 and May 2024.
Last season, Saka and Havertz played a combined 5,572 Prem minutes – more than Jesus (1,482), Martinelli (2,029), Leandro Trossard (1,646) and Reiss Nelson (257) put together.
And this term, after a gruelling Euros campaign, Saka and Havertz have been heavily leaned on again, playing a combined 3,116 minutes before their injuries.
Raheem Sterling – a last-ditch Deadline Day loanee from Chelsea – has played just 307 Prem minutes so far, with 160 of them coming since Saka’s injury on December 21.
Sterling has started just once in all competitions since January 30 and last started back-to-back games in October.
In contrast, Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush has already played more Prem minutes (373) despite only signing for the club on January 23.
SunSport understands that Sterling has a good relationship with Arteta, despite the lack of game time, but is desperate to get more of a chance before the end of the season.
Bukayo Saka’s injury left Arsenal lacking up front[/caption]
Raheem Sterling hasn’t been given many minutes and had failed to impress when he’s had the chance[/caption]
THE FUTURE?
ARSENAL host Manchester United at the Emirates in the FA Youth Cup quarter finals tonight.
The capacity will be capped at 10,000, with an expected attendance of just over 5,200. In comparison, over 34,000 watched the final between Arsenal and West Ham in April 2023.
But those inside will have eyes on potential Arsenal stars of the future, and two that are already on Arteta’s mind: Jack Porter and Max Dowman.
Owing to injury and a cup-tied No2, Porter made his senior debut in a Carabao Cup third round 5-1 win against Bolton in September – the youngest ever starter for the club at 16 years and 72 days.
And then there is Dowman – the 15-year-old who has been heavily involved in first team sessions this season having made his Premier League 2 debut as a 14-year-old back in December, and joined Arsenal’s mid-season Dubai camp this month.
SunSport understands that if Arteta had it his way, the midfielder would already have had his chance in a top flight match day squad by now, just like Ethan Nwaneri did.
But Prem regulations prevent players from a lower age category than the U16s from being included in a match-day squad, and Dowman was registered with the U15s at the start of the season.
Chido Obi-Martin could have returned to North London with United – but the Danish 17-year-old has made such an impact since moving to Manchester that he has been included in the match-day squad for the FA Cup clash with Fulham on Sunday.
Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri have excelled for the Gunners this season[/caption]
Max Dowman, 15, could be the next academy graduate to burst on to the scene[/caption]
AI-RSENAL
ARSENAL fans questioning the club’s transfer strategy may not be surprised to hear the Gunners now use Artificial Intelligence to help determine their targets.
Former chief executive Vinai Venkatesham gave an insight into the Emirates internal mechanics and the data-led approach adopted by the club.
Venkatesham, who left the club in the summer after four years at the helm, said: “There’s definitely science involved, although it’s not an exact science.
“Data and technology have transformed lots of industries and football is no different.
“So we have reams of medical data, data around every single match that’s played and whenever a team is thinking about a transfer data is at the heart of that.
“If we want to process a deal quickly, AI has a role as well to get through that data more quickly to find conclusions more quickly.
“It’s a significant part of football and it’s here to stay.”
Arsenal have long been using data to drive the club forward and even appointed one of the developers of mobile app Candy Crush to act as a ‘data scientist’.
Mikhail Zhilkin helped oversee the launch of Candy Crush Soda and Candy Crush Jelly, and is now helping Arsenal try and crush their opposition on the pitch.
Former Arsenal Chief Executive Vinai Venkatesham has said the club uses AI to aid their transfer business[/caption]
RICE-IPE FOR SUCCESS
DECLAN Rice is officially Arsenal’s biggest transfer success of the past two seasons.
Statistics revealed at the FT Business of Football Summit in London this week showed the England midfielder has played 86 per cent of the available Arsenal minutes since his £100m arrival from West Ham.
That compares with the injured Kai Havertz, whose tally of 76 per cent of minutes will drop as he is missing for the rest of the season.
While England right back Ben White has played 73 per cent since he moved to North London.
But questions will be asked about the reliability of Italian Riccardo Calafiori, who has played barely a third of the available time on the pitch this season.
While Gabriel Jesus’ current 43 per cent availability stats in three seasons will also plunge by the end of the campaign.
Declan Rice’s availability has been one of his biggest assets, while Riccardo Calafiori has spent most of his time injured since arriving in North London[/caption]
