The San Diego Padres enter the 2025 MLB season with plenty of uncertainty but no shortage of potential. They’ve retained their core, added key reinforcements, and maintained the aggressive mindset that has made them a consistent contender. While some analysts are skeptical of their playoff chances, the Padres remain confident in their ability to compete in the brutal National League West. With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for the Padres in 2025.
Jackson Merrill becomes an MVP candidate
Jackson Merrill burst onto the scene last year, finishing second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. The 21-year-old outfielder showcased an impressive slash line of .292/.326/.500, racking up 24 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases.
Merrill’s talent is undeniable, and he has the tools to make the leap into superstardom in 2025. ESPN’s Eric Karabell even predicted that Merrill could achieve a 30-home run, 100-RBI, 25-steal season. If he delivers on that, he’ll be in rare company, joining past legends like Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron who have reached those marks. His defensive versatility and ability to handle center field only bolster his case as one of the most dynamic young players in the league.
Merrill’s work ethic is also a major factor in his projected rise. “I want to get better. That’s the way I always am,” Merrill said earlier this week. “I look at things, and I always want to get better.” If Merrill does take that next step, he could be in the conversation for the National League MVP award by season’s end.
The Padres’ rotation becomes one of the best in baseball
Heading into 2025, the Padres have a rotation that could be vastly improved from last year. The addition of Dylan Cease, who finished in the top seven of the Cy Young voting last season, gives San Diego a legitimate ace to pair with Michael King. Yu Darvish, a veteran presence who has tied a franchise record with four Opening Day starts, adds stability and experience.
The biggest wild card in the rotation is the No. 5 spot, where Kyle Hart, Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez, and Stephen Kolek are all vying for the job. If any of these pitchers can emerge as a consistent back-end starter, the Padres could quietly have one of the deepest rotations in the National League.
San Diego’s pitching staff also benefits from a strong bullpen, with Alek Jacob emerging as a standout reliever this spring. If the Padres’ starting rotation remains healthy and their bullpen steps up, they could surprise many by ranking among the best in MLB in ERA and strikeouts.
Padres shock the league and Secure a postseason spot
Despite a relatively quiet offseason compared to their usual blockbuster-filled winters, the Padres still have a roster capable of making a deep run. Critics like Jim Bowden have predicted that San Diego will miss the playoffs, finishing third in the NL West behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. However, the team’s belief in itself remains unwavering.
“What we did last year as an organization and as a team, a lot of people didn’t expect that from us,” Manny Machado said. “We overcame a lot of things, a lot of adversity, and built something pretty special here. Coming into this season, we’ve got the same squad going out. We are missing some pieces that left, but with the team we got in there, we’re ready to compete.”
A significant factor in the Padres’ success could be their ability to dethrone the Dodgers, something Machado openly relishes. “The Dodgers are [bleeping] good, man. But we’re excited to take them down. There’s nothing better than having a championship team in your division that you can knock off.”
For the Padres to reach the postseason, they need their lineup to click. Key veterans like Jason Heyward, Luis Arraez, and Gavin Sheets must complement the core of Machado, Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Additionally, the Padres need their bullpen, led by closer Robert Suarez, to be much more reliable in high-leverage situations.
If San Diego can stay healthy and get strong performances from their young stars, they have a legitimate shot at clinching a Wild Card berth—or even making a run at the NL West crown.
The Padres enter 2025 as one of baseball’s most intriguing teams. While skeptics doubt their ability to contend, they still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. With Jackson Merrill on the verge of superstardom, a potentially elite pitching staff, and a team ready to shock the baseball world, don’t be surprised if the Padres defy expectations and secure a postseason spot. After all, this is a franchise that thrives when everyone counts them out.
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