The heavy hitters are back out in force this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, with defending champion Scottie Scheffler a predictable short-priced favourite.
But the world No 1 has not really been firing on all cylinders so far this year – in fact his form has been heading in the wrong direction, as he has finished fifth, sixth, and seventh on his three starts so far.
It is hardly a crisis. But it is pretty mediocre stuff for a man who established himself as easily the game’s dominant force with nine wins, including the Masters and the Olympic title.
That makes you wonder if slicing his hand open while carving the Christmas turkey is still troubling Scheffler – possibly affecting his grip slightly – even though he insists he is a hundred per cent.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips
Until we see a glimpse of the 2024 Scheffler it seems to be worth taking him on, especially at 7-2. So step forward Rory McIlroy, who looks much better value at around 8-1.
McIlroy also knows what it feels like to win at Bay Hill, which is one of the toughest courses the pros face all year.
He triumphed here in 2018, was runner-up four years later, and has posted four other top six finishes from ten starts.
He has never missed the cut at ‘Arnie’s Place’ – and despite its status as a Signature event, restricted to an elite field of 72 players, that number will be trimmed to the top fifty after 36 holes, plus anyone else within ten shots of the lead.
McIlroy’s confidence will still be high after his impressive victory at Pebble Beach last month, even though he finished just inside the top twenty in his only subsequent start, at the Genesis.
This is much more up his street. And he looks like the man to beat this time, rather than the only player ahead of him in the world rankings.
Rory’s big pal, Shane Lowry, has also shown a liking for Bay Hill – he looked like going wire-to-wire here last year, until being forced to settle for a share of third.
Ity would not surprise me if Lowry wins at least once before he returns to Portrtush and attempts to repeat his epic Open triumph form – he almost managed it at Pebble before being pushed into second by McIlroy.
Lowry looked like a man who was close to catching fire as he claimed a share of 11th at the Cognizant last week. So a best-priced 45-1 makes him look an attractive each way option.
Ben Griffin also looks over-priced at 80-1, after finishing fourth in his last two starts. He finished a highly respectable 14th on his Bay Hill debut a year ago. His current form suggests he can improve on that, and reward each way interest.
Min Woo Lee finished just outside the top ten last week, and if he has one of his strong weeks he would be worth an interest at around the same odds as Griffin.
And of those in the three-figure bracket, the player who appeals most is Lucas Glover, who is at least 125-1 on most lists. The former US Open champion has finished in the top ten twice here
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Dylan Naidoo continued the home dominance in last week’s South African Open – even if it was in a sudden death shoot-out with England’s Laurie Canter after the tournament was reduced to 54 holes.
And home advantage could again prove crucial at this week’s Joburg Open. The bookies certainly think so, installing Jayden Schaper as their 20-1 favourite, with Shaun Norris next up, at a best-priced 25-1.
Schaper was put up here for the South African open at 30-1, and was bang in the hunt until a third round 73 dropped him down the leaderboard.
I cannot understand why he should be ten points shorter this week after that performance, even though the field is a bit weaker. So Norris – who was tied ninth last week – looks the one to be on.
Daniel van Tonder, who has two second tier victories to his credit this year – also looks attractively priced at 35-1. And at 50-1, England’s Richard Mansell appeals most from the foreign invaders.
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