The start of the MLB season is just a few weeks away. Spring Training is in full swing and the Boston Red Sox are a team to pay attention to in 2025. With the acquisition of both Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet, the Sox feel they can contend in the competitive AL East Division. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Boston Red Sox over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Red Sox had a great offseason. They signed four players (three former champions) who could help them compete this year and improve off of a frustrating 2024 season. Bregman and Crochet highlight the moves, but the Sox also signed World Series champion Walker Buehler and former World Series champion Aroldis Chapman. The Red Sox are almost certainly regretting trading away Chris Sale as he won the NL Cy Young award with the Atlanta Braves last season. However, with the addition of Crochet, they feel he could turn into the next version of Sale. There is a lot to look forward to in Beantown for 2025.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Red Sox Win Total Odds
Over 86.5 Wins: -112
Under 86.5 Wins: -110
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Red Sox could absolutely win 87 games this year and I am shocked the win total isn’t higher than this. The lineup is stacked with some of the best hitters in the game. The rotation is worrisome but adding Crochet gives them a dominant starter who is still very young.
The Red Sox contain Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, two of the best left-handed hitters in the game. Adding Bregman into the mix gives them a solid right-handed hitter whose swing is meant for Fenway Park. Batting in Houston all these years, the former World Series champion smashed a ton over the short left-field fence. The lineup is very lefty-friendly as they also have Triston Casas, a young first baseman who is expected to break this season, Masataka Yoshida, a contact specialist from Japan, and Wilyer Abreu, who just had an electric rookie season. If the Sox can get a better version of Trevor Story, then you could make an argument that Boston’s lineup compares with anyone. The addition of Bregman was huge for this lineup to even out.
Duran and Devers are both MVP-caliber players. Devers has proven it over the years and Duran broke onto the scene last season. Duran was one of the hottest hitters all season long and plays an excellent center field. Duran hit .285 with 21 homers and 75 RBIs and had a WAR of 8.7. Devers’ WAR was 3.7.
The rotation and bullpen have promise. Crochet is a dominant starter who excels early in the game. Lucas Giolito has seen a ton of success in his career, Brayan Bello is a young promising starter, Buehler will see success, and lastly, Garrett Whitlock has proven to be a legit starter in this league. Not to mention, Tanner Houck was arguably the best pitcher they had last year. It may seem a bit messy, but the Sox could have a sneaky good rotation if they all buy in and figure out how to pitch against the AL East hitters. The divisional games will be tough, but if they can pitch well against other teams, then they will make a lot of noise.
The Red Sox won 81 games last season. Jumping up to 87 doesn’t seem too far-stretched for a team used to winning.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Red Sox haven’t won 87 games since 2021 when they won 92. Before that, it was 2018 when they won the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 2021 was also the last season they made the playoffs. Historically, the Sox are not a consistent playoff team. In fact, the Red Sox have never made the playoffs for a 4th consecutive season as it has always ended with three in a row.
The bullpen may struggle. Chapman is past his prime and so is Liam Hendriks. Justin Wilson, Josh Winckowski, and Luis Guererro haven’t proved enough to consider the bullpen a strength.
Final Red Sox Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
I am all in on the Red Sox this season. I do not expect them to turn around after winning 81 games to go on to win the World Series, but I believe they are a playoff team. Three AL East teams can make it and the New York Yankees will take a slight dip after losing Juan Soto. Yes, the Yankees are still legit and the Baltimore Orioles are very good, but the Sox will win 87 games and make the Wild Card Series.
Final Red Sox Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 86.5 Wins (-112)
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