Campaigning for the Academy is a blood sport. Studios pour millions into screenings, media ads, and exclusive events to court the roughly 10,000 Academy voters. Strategists try their best to shape the narratives around their films. Top Gun: Maverick previously “saved theaters,” and Everything Everywhere All at Once had “broken diversity barriers.” Putting whisper campaigns and resurfaced scandals aside, it is no surprise that Oscar campaigns have never been clean. Money talks, but so does social capital, especially now.
The Academy also thrives on a Cinderella story with a rough edge. A film that refuses to be ignored. This is the kind of Hollywood arc that Anora is going through this time. The latest Sean Baker film has emerged as the frontrunner for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards. An underdog story now beating to the drum of an almost inevitable victory march.
Sean Baker has built a career telling stories about those living on the fringes. There’s Tangerine’s portrayal of trans sex workers in L.A. and The Florida Project’s heartbreaking look at childhood poverty. Anora continues the theme, in this instance, focusing on a Brooklyn sex worker, Mikey Madison’s Ani. While some still believe that the Golden Globes have already given them the answers to this question, we think Anora is going to win Best Picture on March 3. And here’s why.
5. The others have skipped and stumbled late in the game
Part of the reason Anora is in such a strong position is that its biggest competitors have been dragging themselves through a tricky minefield of controversy and bad optics. The Brutalist was, at one point, a major contender, but its use of AI in post-production has left a bad taste in people’s mouths. The Academy is full of artists who are already wary of artificial intelligence encroaching on creative spaces. It is all the more unlikely for this to be forgiven.
Emilia Pérez looked like a threat early on, but its lead actor’s past hateful tweets became a firestorm of controversy. Recovering from that this late in the game is no cakewalk. Wicked, meanwhile, is beloved by audiences but lacks any sort of gravitas. Suffice it to say, that is not happening.
Conclave won big at BAFTA, which should be a good sign – but the Oscars don’t always follow BAFTA’s lead. While Anora did face little controversy for not using an intimacy coordinator, the choice is said to have been made by the actors themselves, and the film’s optics did not take a big blow because of this.
4. Anora is the Critics’ Choice and the Palme d’Or Winner – and that means something
A lot of people like to dismiss the Critics’ Choice Awards as just another industry party with shiny trophies, but history says otherwise. More often than not, winning Best Picture at Critics’ Choice is an early signal of success at the Oscars. Anora pulled off something unprecedented – it won Best Picture there without winning in any other category.
Madison lost Best Actress to Demi Moore for The Substance, and Sean Baker missed out on Best Director to Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He also lost Best Original Screenplay to Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) and Best Editing to Marco Costa (Challengers). But despite all those losses, the night ended on a high note – his film still took home Best Picture. That, perhaps, means Anora is a movie people love. Not just respect, not just appreciate, but love.
“This literally has been my singular goal as a filmmaker for the past 30 years,” Baker would say in his acceptance speech for this year’s Palm d’Or award from the Greta Gerwig-led jury, “so I’m not really sure what I’m going to do with the rest of my life. But I do know that I will continue to fight for cinema“
It’s easy to get caught up in the stats of director and screenplay wins, but at the end of the day, Best Picture is a consensus award. The Academy has nearly 10,000 voters, and they’re looking for a film that they genuinely connect with.
3. Anora is one of those bridge films
What do Everything Everywhere All At Once, Parasite, and The Shape of Water all have in common? They were films that walked the tightrope between highbrow and broad audience appeal. They bridged the gap. Long gone are days when The Oscars rewarded just any indie darling – now they only do it occasionally.
Anora is a film that plays at arthouse theaters but still gets laughs, gasps, and applause from general audiences. It’s personal yet universal. It’s both stylish and raw. Technically, the film is great, it’s an Oscar Best Picture nom after all. The cinematography and editing move seamlessly between mad-cap energy and drawn-out melancholy, much like Red Rocket.
The film, however, walks a fine line between its eroticism and controversial comedy. Some argue it veers into the male gaze, yet these moments serve a thematic purpose. Like Baker’s previous work, Anora isn’t afraid to challenge certain expectations.
2. Winning at the Producers Guild of America (PGA)
If you want to predict Best Picture, the PGA Awards is where you should be looking. The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures has historically been one of the most reliable indicators of the Oscar winner. And yeah, you guessed it, Anora won here too.
This is a massive win for the film because the PGA’s voting body overlaps significantly with the Academy’s. The preferential ballot system – where voters rank their choices rather than picking just one – favors broadly beloved films.
That’s why divisive, hyper-stylized films like Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist and Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez are struggling, while Anora continues to climb. This is the kind of movie that might not be everyone’s #1 pick, but it sure as hell isn’t #10 either.
1. Sean Baker’s DGA win was the final nail in the coffin
Sean Baker winning the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures was the moment Anora went from “strong contender” to “likely winner.” The DGA has an uncanny ability to predict Oscar outcomes – four of the last five DGA winners also won Best Picture at the Oscars.
Anora is a director’s movie. The Academy often loves to reward auteurs with a distinct vision, and Baker has built a career making scrappy, indie films that capture the humanity of marginalized communities.
This finally seems like his moment. The Academy has been circling him for years, and now they finally have the chance to put a golden statue in his hands. It was always going to be this way.
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