Earlier in the Oscar race, we dropped our instant reactions to the nominations. However, with a few weeks of more awards coming out, as well as some additional events, the race changed drastically. Below are the FandomWire final Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. Make sure to check out our breakdown for the shorts if you want to win your Oscar pool.
Best Picture
And the Nominees Are:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Who Should Win: Anora
Who Should Have Been Here: Sing Sing
This is a very tight race at the top, and the battle between Conclave and Anora is fully underway. Anora and Sean Baker have picked up some nice hardware. They took the top prize of the Producers Guild of America (PGA), Writers Guild of America (WGA), and Director’s Guild of America (DGA). All have strong crossover with The Academy, and PGA utilizes a preferential ballot like The Oscars. Anora also took home Best Picture from Critics Choice.
However, despite that, Conclave feels like the stronger contender. For one, it took home Best Ensemble over Anora at the Screen Actors Guild on Sunday night, leaving Anora empty-handed. It also won BAFTA for Best Picture, USC Scripter (an integral adapted screenplay award), and the Golden Globe for Screenplay. Perhaps most importantly, it’s the least controversial of the two. Anora winning would be huge for artists, whereas Conclave is the more successful movie at the box office and does not feature nearly as much controversial content.
Anora is my number 3 movie of the year, so that’s who I’ll be cheering for that night. However, the Oscars have not gone for a film like it since the 1960s. Meanwhile, Conclave is likely taking home editing and screenplay, giving it two wins that should propel it over the top. Not for nothing, if it does pull it off, this would be the fourth time Ralph Fiennes has appeared in a Best Picture winner (with another three movies nominated for the top prize). The man knows what the Academy likes.
Best Director
And the Nominees are:
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker – Anora
Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Who Should Have Been Here: Edward Berger – Conclave
This has become the Baker versus Corbet showdown as well. Corbet won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which is a huge win. However, Baker won the DGA prize. Of the last ten DGA winners, nine went on to win Best Director at the Oscars. That heavily favors Baker here. If Corbet had won Critics Choice, you could almost see it happen. However, he’s looking like Richard Linklater for Boyhood — close but not quite there. It’s good company to be in, though.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Who Should Win: Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Who Should Have Been Here: Sebastian Stan – A Different Man
Timothée Chalamet made this race interesting with the SAG win. The young actor made waves by saying he wants to be an all-time great, which is precisely what we love to hear. One wonders if this is simply Chalamet’s moment to rise to the next level of popularity. However, Brody has made good on his comeback narrative in a big way. The Brutalist is not only extremely popular but a fully realized fictional character we rarely get anymore. The AI “controversy” might have helped sway the SAG vote, but Brody should take this as a high-profile win for his movie.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
And the Nominees Are:
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore – The Substance
Who Should Win: Mikey Madison – Anora
Who Should Have Been Here: Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
The SAG awards may have given us what we need to know about the Lead Actress race. To be clear, it’s still a very close race between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore. If you think Anora is winning Best Picture, it seems unfathomable that Madison doesn’t come along for the ride. However, Moore has fully captured the narrative. The big prize she missed was BAFTA, but winning SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe gave her a winning profile. If Madison wins, she will be the first winner of BAFTA alone since Frances McDormand for Nomadland, but that was a year in which each of the four big awards went to different actresses before the Oscar.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
And the Nominees Are:
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Who Should Win: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Who Should Have Been Here: Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
The race here is perhaps the most runaway sweeper of the season. Culkin is walking into Oscar night with the statue engraved. If you want to pick an upset, Norton is the way to go (an overdue veteran in a Best Picture nominee that’s looking for support), but this race is done.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
And the Nominees Are:
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Who Should Win: Ariana Grande – Wicked
Who Should Have Been Here: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
This is another race where you can take the automatic points for your Oscar pool. Ariana Grande is the alternative but has not won anything of note to help herself in the hunt. We’d love for her to win the prize, but this has become a coronation for Saldaña as she’s even overcome the Emilia Pérez controversies. She’s the guaranteed award for that movie on the night and is even more locked in than Original Song or even International Feature.
The Other Big Films to Keep an Eye
In terms of big blockbusters, the Oscars do not have a lot of space to reward the populist hits that dominated the box office in 2024. Wicked will most likely bring home awards, with almost guaranteed trophies for Production Design and Costume Design. However, most Wicked fans will be fairly frustrated with that low of a return. The same will be said for Dune: Part Two, which seems like it will need to settle on Oscars for Sound and Visual Effects. In a worst-case scenario for Dune, both of those awards could go to Wicked, but that remains the ceiling on a Wicked day. Sadly, with Dune: Messiah coming, the Oscars are giving Part Two the Two Towers treatment.
Nosferatu also picked up a handful of nominations but is unlikely to take home a prize. Keep an eye on Cinematography as a potential place for an upset. Still, it will have to overcome Best Picture nominees (which is unlikely in categories that have not swept the precursors). The Wild Robot seems poised to win an Animated Feature, but Flow remains a stunning achievement in its own right. We want a Flow win, but with The Wild Robot picking up nominations outside of the Animated Feature category, it has support from multiple branches. Its consolation prize is the Animation Oscar.
Best Original Screenplay
And the Nominees are:
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Predicted Winner: Anora – Sean Baker
Who Should Win: The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Who Should Have Been Here: Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
And the Nominees are:
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave – Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Screenplay by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield
Predicted Winner: Conclave – Peter Straughan
Who Should Win: Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Who Should Have Been Here: The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders
Best Animated
And the Nominees are:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Who Should Win: Flow
Who Should Have Been Here: Look Back
Best International Feature
And the Nominees are:
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Predicted Winner: I’m Still Here
Who Should Win: Flow
Who Should Have Been Here: Kneecap
Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Predicted Winner: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Who Should Win: No Other Land
Who Should Have Been Here: Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Movie
Best Film Editing
And the Nominees are:
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Who Should Win: Conclave
Who Should Have Been Here: Challengers
Best Cinematography
And the nominees are:
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Who Should Win: Maria
Who Should Have Been Here: Nickel Boys
Best Makeup and Hair Styling
And the Nominees are:
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Who Should Win: The Substance
Who Should Have Been Here: The First Omen
Best Sound
And the Nominees are:
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Win: The Wild Robot
Who Should Have Been Here: Civil War
Best Costume Design
And the nominees are:
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Who Should Win: Wicked
Who Should Have Been Here: The Substance
Best Production Design
And the nominees are:
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Who Should Win: Nosferatu
Who Should Have Been Here: Alien: Romulus
Best Visual Effects
And the nominees are:
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Have Been Here: The Substance
Best Original Score
And the Nominees are:
The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez – Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot – Kris BowersBest Original Score
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Who Should Win: The Wild Robot
Who Should Have Been Here: Nosferatu
Best Original Song
And the Nominees are:
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Predicted Winner: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Who Should Win: “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who Should Have Been Here: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
Best Live Action Short
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Predicted Winner: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Who Should Win: A Lien
Best Documentary Short Subject
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Predicted Winner: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Who Should Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Best Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Predicted Winner: Yuck!
Who Should Win: Wander to Wonder
The 97th Academy Awards celebrating the best of film in 2024 airs on March 2, 2025.
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