It is game three of a four-game series as the Pittsburgh Pirates face the Miami Marlins. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Marlins prediction and pick.
In the first game of the three-game series, the Marlins took a lead in the third period, but the Pirates would lead 4-1 in the sixth inning. Still the Marins would come back and win it in the bottom of the ninth. It will be Mitch Keller for the Pirates against Connor Gillispie of the Marlins in game two of the series on Friday.
Pirates-Marlins Projected Starters
Bailey Falter vs. Valente Bellozo
Bailey Falter (8-9) with a 4.43 ERA in 2024.
Last Start: Falter made 28 starts for the Pirates in 2024, going 8-9 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
Away Splits: Falter was 3-5 on the road last year in 14 starts. He had a 4.92 ERS and a .267 opponent batting average on the road last year.
Valenta Bellozo (3-4) with a 3.67 ERA in 2024.
Last Start: Bellozo made 13 starts for the Marlins in 2024, going 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.
Home Splits: Bellozo was 2-2 at home in five starts last year. He had a 4.39 ERA and a .271 opponent batting average at home.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Marlins Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -134
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +114
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Marlina
Time: 4:10 PM ET/ 1:10 PM PT
TV: SNP/FDSNFL
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be sending a new addition to the team to bat lead-off with Tommy Pham expecting to bat first. Pham spent time with the White Sox, Cardinals, and Royals last year. Between the three teams last year, he hit .248 with a .305 on-base percentage and .368 slugging. Further, he drove in 39 runs while scoring 49 runs last year between the three teams. Bryan Reynolds is expected to be in the two spot in the lineup. Reynolds was solid last year, leading the team in WAR while hitting .275 with a .344 on-base percentage. Reynolds also led the team with 24 home runs and 88 RBIs last year.
Oneil Cruz and Joey Bart will hold down the middle of the order for the Pirates. Cruz hit .259 last year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .449 slugging percentage. He also hit 21 home runs, and drove in 76 runs, while also scoring 72 times last year. Joey Bart returns for the Pirates as the backstop. Bart played in just 80 games last year, hitting 13 home runs and driving in 45 runs. Finally, the end of the order is expected to have Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes hit .233 last year with a .290 slugging.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Xavier Edwards is expected to be at the top of the lineup for the Marlins. Edwards played in just 70 games last year but hit .328 with a .397 on-base percentage in that time. He also slugged .423 last year. Further, Edwards drove in 26 runs, scored 39 runs, and stole 31 bases in his 70 games last year. Kyle Stowers is expected to be hitting behind him. Stowers played in just 50 games last year, hitting .186 with a .262 on-base percentage and 15 RBIs.
The top returning bat for the Marlins will be Jonah Bride, who is projected to be hitting third. Bride played in just 71 games last year but did hit .276 with a .357 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. He also hit 11 home runs and 39 RBIs last year. Matt Mervis is expected to start at first base and hit fourth for the Marlins in this one. He has spent time in the Cubs minor league system the last few years and played in 36 games with the major league club in the last two seasons. In that time he has hit just .155 with three home runs and 14 RBIs
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Pirates are favored in terms of odds in this early-season MLB game. The Pirates do have the better lineup overall. Tommy Pham is a more experienced bat to lead off the order than Xavier Edward, but Edwards has shown the ability to get one base. In the middle of the lineup, Oneil Cruz and Joey Bart provide more power than Jonah Bride and Matt Mervis for the Marlins. Still, the major difference in this game will be in the start pitching battle. Bailey Falter was solid last year. He had a 4.30 FIP, which is just slightly worse than the league average, as is his 95 ERA+. Meanwhile, Valents Bellozo had a mixed back when it comes to his advanced metrics. He had a 124 ERA+ which is great, but had a 5.73 FIP, which is poor. One of the major issues comes in his home runs per nine innings, which was sitting at 2.0 last year. If he does not give up the long ball, he pitches well. The Pirates lineup does not have enough power threats, take the Marlins
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-154)
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