It is an NL East showdown as the Philadelphia Phillies face the Washington Nationals. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Nationals prediction and pick.
In the first game of the series between the Phillies and the Nationals, the Nationals took the early lead. Keibert Ruiz hit a home run in the bottom of the fifth to give the Nationals the lead. Still, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both hit solo home runs in the seventh to make it a 2-1 lead for the Phillies. The Phillies would add another run in the eighth, but in the bottom of the eighth, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. would tie the game for the Nationals. The game would go to extra innings, where the Phillies would use a four-run tenth inning to win the game 7-3.
Phillies-Nationals Projected Starters
Jesus Luzardo vs. Jake Irvin
Jesus Luzardo (3-6) with a 5.00 ERA in 12 starts.
Last Start: Luzardo made just 12 starts for the Marlins in 2024 before his season was ended by injury. In the offseason, the Phillies acquired Luzardo from the Marlins.
Away Splits: Luzardo was 1-3 in five road starts in 2024 with a 5.27 ERA.
Jake Irvin (10-14) with a 4.41 ERA in 33 starts.
Last Start: Irvin made 33 starts for the Washington Nationals last year. He would win ten games for the Nationals while having a 1.9 WAR.
Home Splits: Irvin was 7-5 at home, with a 4.03 ERA in his 20 starts. He also had a .233 opponent batting average at home last year.
Here are the Phillies-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Nationals Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+116)
Moneyline: -144
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: +122
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Nationals
Time: 4:05 PM ET/ 1:05 PM PT
TV: MASN
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Trea Turner hit the lead-off for the Phillies. Turner was solid last year. He played in just 121 games but hit .295 with a .338 on-base percentage. Still, Turner drove in 62 runs and stole 19 bases last year Meanwhile, the Phillies bring back the majority of the core of their lineup. That starts with Bryce Harper, who hit second. Harper was sixth in the NL MVP voting last year after hitting .285 with a .373 on-base percentage. Further, he slugged .525 while sitting 30 home runs and driving in 87 RBIs.
He will be joined in the lineup by Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber hit .248 last year, primarily out of the leadoff spot. Further, he got on base at a .366 rate while driving in 104 runs last year. Stealing bases was something that Bryson Stott did well last year, stealing 32 of them, and he also returns to the Phillies lineup. Stott also hit .245 last year with a .315 on-base percentage and a .356 slugging. Further, he hit 11 home runs and drove in 57 runs last year.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Nationals lineup is led by a strong core of young players. That starts with CJ Abrams. Abrams was an all-star last year for the Nationals, after hitting .246 last year. He also had a .314 on-base percentage while having a .433 slugging percentage. Further, Abrams hit 20 home runs and drove in 65 runs while also stealing 31 bases. He is joined in the lineup by Luis Garcia. Garcia his .282 last year with a .318 on-base percentage and a .444 slugging. Garcia also hit 18 home runs, drove in 70 runs, and stole 22 bases.
Meanwhile, Dylan Crews will be looking to make an impact this year. The 22-year-old Crew played in just 31 games with the big league club last year, giving .218 with a .288 on-base percentage. Further, he drove in eight runs and hit three home runs. He is joined in the lineup by 21-year-old James Wood. Wood hit .264 with a .354 on-base percentage. Wood also slugged .427 last year. Wood had nine home runs and 41 RBIs last season. Finally, Keibert Ruiz also returns to the lineup. He hit .229 last year with a .359 slugging. Ruiz had 13 home runs and 57 RBIs last year.
Final Phillies-Nationals Prediction & Pick
Jesus Luzardo struggled last year before his season was ended by injury. He had a 1.245 WHIP with a 4.26 FIP, a Fielder Independent Pitching metric, where the league average is 4.00. Still, he was solid in 2022 and 2023, with FIP numbers well under the 4.00 marker, and solid home run per nine-inning numbers. Jake Irvin was one of the better pitchers for the Nationals last year, but still had a 1.12 WHIP, and a 4.41 FIP. The Phillies also have the better bullpen, plus the more potent lineup. While the Phillies took time to get their offense going in the first game, they will not have that issue in this one against Jake Irivin. Take the Phillies here.
Final Phillies-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-144)
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